Predictions powered by AI simulations — not opinions.
A prediction marketplace where every forecast is measured, tracked, and used to improve. No crowdsourcing. No voting. Just AI learning from reality.
Most prediction platforms rely on crowd wisdom or expert opinions. Mantica doesn't. We use AI simulations trained on historical data, updated with current information, and calibrated against actual outcomes. Every prediction becomes training data for the next one.
Every prediction is locked at creation time. We show exactly what we predicted before the event, then measure ourselves against reality.
When we say 70%, it should happen ~70% of the time. We track calibration across thousands of predictions to ensure honesty.
Each resolved prediction feeds back into the model. Feature weights, confidence calibration, and similarity matching all improve over time.
User provides a scenario: text description, image, or URL. Mantica gathers all available data from historical records, recent events, and relevant context.
The AI model runs simulations based on similar past events, feature patterns, and known variables. It calculates probability distributions for all possible outcomes.
The prediction is locked and published with full reasoning, confidence scores, and evidence sources. This becomes a permanent, searchable record.
When the event occurs, we verify the actual outcome and mark the prediction as correct or incorrect. All reasoning remains visible.
The prediction and its outcome become training data. Feature weights adjust, calibration improves, and future predictions get smarter.
MMA and boxing predictions based on fight history, style matchups, and physical data.
Will a page rank in top 3? Based on content depth, backlinks, and domain authority.
Startup funding success, product launch performance, company milestones.
Binary market outcomes like price thresholds or earnings beats (not trading advice).
Box office performance, award show winners, media success metrics.
Study outcome predictions, replication success, publication impact.
Every prediction is cryptographically timestamped at creation. You can always see exactly what Mantica said before the event, preventing any post-hoc editing or cherry-picking. The "Time Capsule View" shows the original prediction with all reasoning frozen in time.
We track three critical metrics: overall win/loss accuracy, calibration grade (do our probabilities match reality?), and high-confidence reliability. Each prediction counts toward our public track record.
Found an existing prediction but want to change an assumption? Fork it. Adjust variables, remove data sources, or modify the timeline. This creates branching simulations that help identify which factors matter most.
Browse past predictions, see our accuracy stats, or create your own simulation.
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